-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 092353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 PM EST TUE MAR 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING THE AREA
ONE MORE DAY OF MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIFT EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND BEGIN A STRETCH OF OVERCAST WEATHER...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OLD FNTL BNDRY STILL HANGING ARND THE AREA...BUT ONLY REAL
EVIDENCE OF IT IS SOME OCNL CLDS OVER THE XTRM NRN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA. WITH UPR RDG LINE STILL TO THE WEST...AND WEAK SFC
HIPRES IN PLACE...XPCT ONE MORE NGT OF MAINLY CLR CONDS. WITH THE
CLR SKIES...LOW DEW PTS...AND FAIRLY XTNSV SNOW CVR IN
PLACE...XPCT TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLSD UPR LOW...CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW...CONTS TO INCH EVER SO
SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE SHRT TERM PD. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LL
COMBINED WITH THE UPR RDG SHD CONT TO ERODE PCPN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO
SPREAD EWRD. FIRST CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE FCST AREA IS WED NGT AS
THE INITIAL PUSH OF WRM ADV AND SW FLOW APRCHS THE AREA. MODEL
FCSTS SHOW THE INITAL BATCH DRYING OUT AS IT MVES EAST...AND POPS
ARE BLO CHANCE OVER THE ERN ZONES...UNTIL SOMETIME ON THU
NGT...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE SLOW MVMT OF THE SYSTEM. VERY LTL OR
LGT QPF IS XPCTD WITH ANY OF THE WEAK WVS BEFORE FRI.

FNLY...FRI BRINGS A BRK DOWN OF THE UPR RDG AND A DVLPG SELY
INFLOW AS THE UPR LOW APCHS...AND STRONGER WVS ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROF AND HEAD TWRDS THE FCST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFT 12Z FRI AS THE PCPN MVES IN.

WAA AND THE COMPLETE LACK OF AVBL COLD AIR MAKES THIS AN ALL RAIN
EVENT...CERTAINLY THRU THE SHRT TERM PD...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL
DYNAMIC COOLING AVBL AS THINGS WIND UP FRI. DEEP SYSTEM EASILY
PULLS VERY MOIST AND MILD AIR FROM THE GULF WELL UP INTO THE ERN
STATES REMOVING ALL DOUBT FOR PCPN TYPE.

WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN JUST BEGINNING NEAR THE END OF THE SHRT
TERM...NO REAL CNCRN FOR FLOODING IN THE PD. HWVR...XPCT
SIGNIFICANT RISES BLO FLOOD STAGE ON AREA RVRS AS THE CNSRBL SNOW
PACK CONTS TO MELT...AND LACK OF OVRNGT FREEZE UP NO LONGER PUTS
TEMPORARY HALTS IN THE PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE IN STORE...AS A LARGE-SCALE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S.

ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL POSITION DIFFERENCES WILL PROBABLY END
UP INDUCING IMPORTANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNT GRADIENTS...THE MAIN IDEA IS
THAT A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THIS COMING
WEEKEND...AUGMENTED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALL MODEL
SCENARIOS AND HPC GUIDANCE SHOW A LARGE CLOSED VORTEX SLOWLY
PROGRESSING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EURO APPEARS TO
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (PERHAPS SEVERAL
INCHES)...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE SOMEWHAT LESS. SUCH
RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOWMELT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES)...HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SUBSTANTIAL RUNOFF
PROBLEMS. OBVIOUSLY...THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN
THE COMING DAYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT
TO SEA. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
FIRM CONTROL. UPPER CI CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WHICH IS THE RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MISS RVR
VLY. MAIN CONCERN WITH GOING FORECAST REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AS WEAK WINDS COMBINE WITH TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR/BELOW
AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS. SURFACE REMAINS VERY MOIST THANKS IN
PART TO A MELTING SNOW PACK WHICH MAY ASSIST IN FG DEVELOPMENT.
RIGHT NOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
SYR/RME/BGM AS THESE SITES RESIDE IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE EAST OF A WEAK STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BIGGER CONCERNS
ARISE FOR BOTH ITH/ELM WHERE SLIGHTLY MOISTER CONDITIONS EXIST TO
THE WEST. FOR NOW...WILL INSERT A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS AT
KELM AND WILL AWAIT EVENING TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING THE NEXT COURSE
OF ACTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVELS QUICKLY DRYING UP BY MORNING AS
TEMPS BEGIN TO QUICKLY RISE ONCE AGAIN. CLOUDS WILL GROW MORE THICKER BY
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK INTO
THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT INTO SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/FOG.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...CMG

NWS RAHNWS Office Area Forecast Discussion