SPC Mar 11, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

...CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD SOME TO REMOVE PART OF THE NERN FL
PENINSULA...GIVEN THE SLOW SWD SHIFT OF THE MORE VIGOROUS BAND OF
TSTMS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. 
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AND
ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.  PLEASE REFER TO LATEST
WATCHES AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SUCH AS # 183 ISSUED AT 1913Z/
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA.

...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS LATE...
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO COVER MORE OF WRN AL AND SRN MS FOR
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD.  12Z ECMWF/15Z SREF
BOTH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT AREAS
A LITTLE FARTHER S AS WELL AS THE AREA ALREADY IN THE SLIGHT RISK.

...NRN/ERN IL AND IND...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PROBABILITY LINES FOR THIS REGION
GIVEN ENEWD TREND OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.  FOR ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE
DETAILS AND ATTENDANT LOW END RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...PLEASE REFER
TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #184.

..PETERS.. 03/11/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
FINAL IN SERIES OF VIGOROUS TROUGHS CURRENTLY SRN NM/TX BIG BEND
WILL MOVE TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI AS OCCLUDED LOW OVER WRN IA
GRADUALLY FILLS AND REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY. ADDITIONALLY AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD
ACROSS NRN GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING STRONG SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE
UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS NERN GULF AND FL IN THE EXIT REGION.

...FL...
ACTIVE MCS OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AM WITH STRONG MOIST
ADVECTION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER

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