000
FXUS61 KBGM 271054
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front swings through the region Saturday through Sunday
bringing a chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures trend much warmer starting Sunday, this pattern holds
into the middle of the week. Cold front will bring more rain showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM Update...

Temperatures range in the mid 30s to mid 40s this morning with
high clouds moving into the region. Minor changes were needed to
update temperatures and dew points with current observations.
Otherwise previous forecast remains on track at this time.

400 AM Update...

Surface high pressure system slides east this morning with a
warm front approaching the region. Model guidance shows dry air
in place this morning within the low to mid levels, this should
delay precipitation until the late morning/afternoon timeframe.
Otherwise a dry start to the day is expected with high clouds
gradually lowering and thickening as the showers move in from
the west. Minor timing differences are observed in the CAMS
suggesting increased confidence of the onset time being late
morning/early afternoon. Temperatures are expected to climb into
the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon. Scattered rain showers
will continue throughout the day and into the evening hours
with only a tenth of QPF expected at most. Rain showers linger
through the night with sufficient moisture and lift present.
There is potential for some thunder, but model soundings showed
an inversion keeping conditions stable overnight. Lows are
expected to range in the mid 40s to low 50s across the region.

Upper level heights continue to rise on Sunday with the warm front
staying to our north of our region. In this section, warm air
advects into the region allowing temperatures to soar well into
the 70s. Enough moisture and instability looks to be in place,
therefore it will be partly sunny with scattered mainly
afternoon thunderstorms around. Tough to time and place such
storms, as model soundings show some variability in terms of
timing of instability. Regardless daytime period will be favored
with the building instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Recent trends continue with the warm sector ahead of the next cold
front having less northward extent into our region. This keeps the
boundary nearby Sunday night through Monday night. Enough lift and
moisture look to be present for isolated to scattered showers. Some
weak instability looks to be present also adding in the potential
for a few thunderstorms as well. With the increase in moisture,
temperatures Sunday night only fall into the 50`s. With more clouds
around Monday temperatures have continued to trend slightly cooler
as most locations look to top off in the upper 70`s now.  Monday
night still looks rather muggy as most locations again struggle to
fall much below 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move
through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to
bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance has trended more
disorganized given the shorter window in the warm sector. Still
500- 1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60`s
could be realized. In terms of any thunderstorm organization
0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 30-40 knots ahead of
the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into
linear segments with a gusty wind threat. However, could see
quite a bit of cloud cover and modeled lapse rates have been
constantly modeled as poor.

Taking a look at Tuesday from a hydrological perspective. PW values
do look to rise above an inch with some favorable vector profiles as
well for training thunderstorms. This is showing up as well with
some ensemble members painting localized 1-2 inch rainfall amounts
over portions of the region which gets close to 6 hr FFG.

This frontal boundary washes out east of the region so not much of a
cooling trend for the middle of next week. We may end up getting a
drier window Wednesday and Thursday before our next frontal boundary
and chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday. Lows in the
50`s and highs in the 70`s generally.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the morning ahead of a
approaching warm front. Scattered rain showers move ahead of
the front and into our region late morning/early afternoon.
MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings restrictions are expected at all
terminals this afternoon. As showers settle in for the evening,
IFR ceiling restrictions are possible as well for most of the
sites. IFR restrictions are expected to persist overnight into
the end of the TAF period.

Gusty southerly winds up to 25 knots accompany these
showers. LLWS is possible at ELM/ITH at the end of the period
but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF at this
time.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday..Restrictions possible in
rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday...Mainly VFR expected. Perhaps an isolated shower or
t`storm in the afternoon/evening.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for a shower.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion