179
FXUS61 KBGM 112312
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
612 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended winter weather advisories to include Chenango and
Otsego Counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lake effect snow showers continue over Central NY today and
into Thursday.


2) A shortwave brings some additional snow showers Friday night
into Saturday. Continuing to monitor another system Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Lake effect snow continues downwind of Lake Ontario this evening.
This really is a lake enhanced event with synoptic moisture
that is wrapping all the way around an upper level low over
norther Maine. The synoptic moisture combined with cold air low-
level air (-12C or so at 850 mb) moving across Lake Ontario and
riding upslope into the highlands of central NY continues to
cause fairly widespread light to occasionally moderate snowfall.
Decided to add Chenango and Otsego into the winter weather
advisory as per radar signatures and the flow pattern. The snow
is enhancing in the higher terrain as expected. Colder and
drier air is expected to work south later tonight and shut down
the snows east of I-81 as per some of the CAM models but the
persistent northwest low-level flow across Lake Ontario looks
to prolong the lake effect snow east of I-81 and north of BGM.
We may have to continue the advisory longer or up amounts and
potentially go to a lake effect snow warning in these areas. We
will be looking into this as new guidance comes in. In the mean
time, a widespread 3 to 7 inches snowfall expected mainly north
and east of a BGM to ITH line.

Previous Discussion below...
Lake effect snow showers will continue across Central NY, with
the most numerous snow showers downstream of Lake Ontario this
afternoon. These snow showers will be aided by a weak mid- level
disturbance and some instability, which could help produce a
gusty snow shower or a few smaller snow squalls for northern
Central NY this evening. As flow becomes more prominently
northwest tonight, lake effect snow showers will likely develop
off of the Finger Lakes, as well as Lake Ontario, continuing
snowfall for areas south and east of the Finger Lakes. Some of
these showers could possibly extend into portions of the
Southern Tier as well. These showers are expected to last until
at least Thursday early afternoon, and the Winter Weather
Advisories for Onondaga- Southern Cayuga- Tompkins- Cortland
have been extended in time to 1pm Thursday to account for these
showers off of the Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario. Snow showers
should diminish going into Thursday late afternoon with high
pressure beginning to build in.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Model guidance is starting to key in another shortwave moving
through Friday night into Saturday with another round of snow
showers and some light accumulations. This feature has trended
stronger so we will continue to monitor.

Looking into the late weekend, another system looks to track
through the Southern United States Sunday into Monday. The
latest run of the ECWMF is the latest update that has our area
under any impact, which would bring some mixed rain/snow into
the area. Even though very few scenarios exist with impacts from
this system, we`ve maintained some rain and snow showers in the
forecast.

Confidence is increasing temperatures will get into the 40s for
highs early next week. This would suggest a slower instead of
sudden thaw process which would be helpful in terms of lowering
the risk of any potential ice jams.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current snow showers will continue through the afternoon with
those associate restrictions remaining at those terminals.
Another cold front drops through and brings some heavier snow
showers across the area this evening, and will spread from
north to south starting in the late afternoon into the mid
evening hours. This should bring IFR conditions to ITH and BGM
along with the already expected IFR at SYR and RME through the
day. Lake effect snow is expected to last into tomorrow, but
confidence in band placement and intensity for this evening into
the overnight is low. Currently, ITH seems to have the best
chance at remaining IFR through the night, with SYR/BGM/RME at
MVFR. These terminals could see IFR as there are some signals
for it, but confidence is not high enough at this time to
include it in the TAFs.

ELM will see snow later this morning into the evening hours with
MVFR restrictions. Like the other terminals, IFR could be
possible but confidence is not high. AVP is expected to remain
VFR through the day as snow is not expected to reach the
terminal.



Outlook...

Thursday... Some IFR/MVFR restrictions possible from lingering
snow showers in CNY.

Friday and Saturday... High pressure returns with VFR conditions
expected at this time.

Sunday...Restrictions possible with the potential for a system
to move into the area.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-036-
     037-045-046.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ017-018-
     025-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJN/KL
AVIATION...KL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion