CNYWeather.com - Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KBGM 111824
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts for today have once again slightly increased
with areas of moderate rain expected to hang on longer than
previously forecast.

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain across the region will continue into the
overnight hours remnant moisture from Isaias moving up the East
Coast. Dry and warm weather returns on Monday.

2) A low pressure system will bring numerous showers and a
chance for thunderstorms Tuesday. A deep upper trough may move
through the region to end the week, bringing rain and the
possibility for the first snow showers of the season.

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGE 1

The extra-tropical low from the remnants of Isaias continues
to bring rain showers across the Southern Tier into NEPA. These
showers will lift north as the afternoon progresses, with rain
expected across the area by late afternoon. Moderate rain has
moved into the Wyoming Valley region and should slowly spread to
the NNE. Along and east of I-81 from the Wyoming Valley into
Otsego county has the best chances to see 1.0-1.5 inches of rain
from this system. Weak mid-level frontogenesis is progged to
develop over this area and keep periods of moderate rain going
into the early overnight hours. The low will kick east of the
area during the overnight hours, with some lingering lake
enhanced rain showers possible into the early morning hours.
Some areas could see some minor urban flooding this afternoon
and evening, especially across poor drainage areas. Flash
flooding is not expected given the low rainfall rates and dry
antecedent conditions in place across the region. Temps today
should top out in the 50s, while only falling in to the upper
40s to low 50s tonight.

Ridging builds into the area from the west on Monday, bringing
WSW winds and dry, warmer weather to the region. Highs on
Monday are expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The next weather system looks to impact the area on Tuesday. A
low pressure system is forecast to track eastward across the
Great Lakes into Ontario as the day progresses. This system
should bring rain showers to the area with a chance for
thunderstorms, a few which could be strong to severe west of
I-81. We are expected to be in the warm sector of this low,
with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. This would allow
for some marginal instability, 500-1000 j/kg of CAPE, to
develop Tuesday afternoon while 30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear
moves into the area. The uncertainty with thunderstorms
developing remains high as the models continue to have
differences in timing and location of the low. Also, clouds
are expected during the morning hours that would limit
instability, especially if they hang on longer than currently
forecast. If we can get some clearing for a few hours, the
atmosphere should have the necessary ingredients to get some
isolated thunderstorms to develop.

Behind this system, high pressure is expected to control the
weather pattern into Friday. Our next big looks to be a very
strong trough diving into the area from Central Canada. This
trough has been modeled somewhat consistently between most of
the major global models so confidence is moderate that we will
get precipitation on Friday into Saturday. The big question is
will this trough be able to tap into cold Canadian air and bring
the first taste of winter to the region this weekend. Current
model runs show a blast of cold air getting pulled into the
region with this trough, dropping high temps from the upper 50s
to low 60s Friday to the low to mid 40s Saturday. Friday night
lows in the low to mid 30s are progged to crash to the mid to
upper 20s Saturday night. With this cold air, the first
snowflakes of the season will be possible on Saturday.
Accumulations are not expected but cold, elevated surfaces could
see a light, patchy dusting by the late afternoon hours.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --Rain showers continue to spread over the region this afternoon and
will persist into the evening. Rain will remain steady throughout
the day and will be moderate to heavy at times with IFR visibilities
possible. VFR conditions hold for a bit longer at RME and SYR as
showers were slower to move into these sites. Otherwise Fuel
Alt to IFR conditions are expected at most terminals, with LIFR
ceilings at ELM. Once showers push out of the region late
evening, low ceilings and visibilities will linger overnight.
LLWS is possible at AVP this afternoon and will dissipate in the
evening.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...Generally VFR conditions with
weak high pressure passing through.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions possible as
another low pressure system approaches the region with showers
and even a small chance of daytime thunder.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure building in should
result in mostly VFR conditions with the exception of valley fog
at ELM.

Friday...Low pressure system approaches the region with restrictions
possible.-- End Changed Discussion --

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...ES

US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
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