Area Forecast Discussion (NWS BGM)

FXUS61 KBGM 201815
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
215 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe threat has increased some with the Wyoming Valley area
now in an `Enhanced Risk`. Otherwise, no significant changes
for the forecast with Tuesday the most active day expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms remains for
Tuesday.

2) Showers will linger into at least the first half of Wednesday
followed by drier weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms for Tuesday
afternoon for the entire BGM CWA. The primary threat is wind with
large hail and an isolated tornado or two can`t be ruled out. There
is a `Slight Risk` across the entire area from the Storm Prediction
Center. An `Enhanced Risk`is in place across the Wyoming Valley
area, along with areas further south into Pennsylvania. This will
all unfold as a strong trough drops out of Canada and tracks across
the Great Lakes, while at the same time a sub 995 mb sfc low will
track near the southern tip of James Bay, dragging its associated
frontal boundaries across the region.

Some morning showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible
for Tuesday as the warm front associated with the system tracks
northeast. Though primary timing for the strong to severe
thunderstorm potential is expected for the afternoon into
evening hours. This is when the warm sector of the system will
increase instability over the region, while earlier shear values
will increase some toward 40 kts. Instability will increase to
around 1,500 J/kg for SB CAPE and closer to 2,000 J/kg for MU
CAPE. A pre-frontal trough tracking across the area during the
afternoon into the early evening will provide the forcing for
the storms to develop (if not already developed upstream).
Storms should move pretty quick with the overall flow in place,
but heavy downpours can be expected at times with the
thunderstorms as PWat values increase to the 1.75-2.00" range.
If a few thunderstorms hit the same area in a short window of
time, then the potential for localized flooding issues will
increase. A `Marginal Risk` for excessive rainfall is in place
for the entire area on Tuesday from WPC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The best chance for showers will occur as the cold front associated
with the system tracks through the region during the early morning
hours. After, some lingering showers will be possible as the axis of
the large trough over the region tracks across and then east of the
area by later Wednesday.

Ridging will increase across the region as a sfc highs slide east
from the mid Mississippi Valley to the coast of New England from
Thursday morning through Saturday morning.

Cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will start to warm
later into the week and the weekend as return flow increases behind
the sfc high shifting east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions will persist across the area the rest of this
afternoon, evening and into tonight. MVFR CIGs arrive from the
south, impacting AVP by 9/10z early Tuesday morning. Showers
will also arrive and move from Central PA north and east toward
the NY southern tier and Catskills around daybreak. A few of
these could be moderate to briefly heavy with occasional (tempo)
IFR conditions possible at AVP. Can`t rule out a few
thunderstorms early Tuesday morning near AVP, but confidence
not high enough to include in the TAF there yet. At this time
the showers are expected to remain just east of BGM, however
MVFR to possibly MVFR fuel alternate CIGs are expected at BGM
Tuesday morning. AVP is expected to remain MVFR/Fuel Alt through
the end of this 18z taf period, while BGM may lift to low end
VFR after about 16z Tuesday. The rest of the TAF sites are
expected to remain VFR through 18z Tuesday, although ELM may be
close to MVFR CIGs at times Tuesday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms arrive after 18z across the area, into the evening
hours.

A period of low level wind shear (LLWS) is expected at RME
around daybreak. Otherwise, south winds increase between 8-15
kts, with a few higher gusts heading into the day on Tuesday.

Outlook:

Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms
likely along with associated restrictions. Some storms could be
severe with gusty and erratic winds, hail and torrential
rainfall Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Saturday... Mainly VFR.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJW
AVIATION...MJM

                
            
                                
    
        
    
    
        
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