Area Forecast Discussion (NWS BGM)

FXUS61 KBGM 281811
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-- Changed Discussion --No major changes to the forecast package. Flood Watch remains in
effect for affected counties until tomorrow evening.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --1) A low pressure system will continue to bring multiple rounds
of showers and storms through Wednesday. Locally heavier rain
amounts are possible, which could lead to localized flash
flooding.

2) Scattered showers will be possible Thursday through the end of
the week as this system slowly exits the region. The weekend will
start out dry though rain may return by Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGE 1...

Multiple rounds of rain showers and storms are expected to
continue slowly across the area through the rest of the day
today. Going into the evening, a strong LLJ develops and will
help advect more moisture from the Atlantic into the area, and
in combination with a shortwave system moving into the
Poconos/Catskills area this evening, additional heavy rainfall
with rates of 1-2 inches per hour is possible.

This system will slowly pivot eastward, which becomes the main
cause for the potential for flash flooding. PWATs aren`t too
high (around 1.0 to 1.5), but due to the slow progression and
pivot of this system, there remains a risk for flash flooding
mainly for areas east of I-81.

Forecasted rainfall totals will range from 1 to 3 inches across
the region. As mentioned, the strong LLJ and terrain effect
will likely lead to an area of higher rainfall amounts, where
locally totals will push into the 3 to 5 inch range in the
Catskills and Poconos.The Flood Watch continues for affected
areas until tomorrow evening.

Some instability is available for some storm development, but
chances for a storm to become severe is relatively low. With any
storm, moderate to heavy rainfall is possible.

As this system begins to move east and slightly northward
overnight, wrap-around moisture will continue into tomorrow,
mainly for Central NY, highlighted over the Finger Lakes region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

This system will drift up the coast into New England by Thursday,
through wraparound moisture on the back side of the system will
continue to support light showers over the region through the
end of the work week. A ridge will begin to push in from the
west with drier air beginning Friday afternoon, with rain
showers coming to an end by the late afternoon/early evening
hours.

Over the weekend, a trough takes shape over the Northeast once
again as a low pressure system develops in the Southwest. The
flow around this low will tap into the Gulf and Atlantic,
potentially advecting moisture northward into the region. There
is uncertainty though if surface high pressure keeps conditions
dry through Sunday or if showers develop with the trough digging
in. Chances for showers may be better early next week as a cold
front drops in from the north.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mix of VFR to locally IFR conditions are expected this
afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms, some locally
heavy, move through the area. There looks to be a bit of a lull
in the activity after about 00Z-02Z with some isolated showers
or spotty drizzle but lower ceilings remain. Guidance suggests
that areas of fog is possible late tonight and early tomorrow
morning, especially around ELM and ITH, but confidence in fog
forming is low because of low confidence in there being enough
clearing. As a result, low stratus seems to be more likely
later tonight into early tomorrow morning. So far ceiling obs
seem to be slightly higher than guidance so stayed above it for
now, but IFR/LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out.

Showers look to increase toward the end of the TAF coming out
of the north and rotating back into CNY but will likely be
covered more in the next forecast.

Outlook:

Wednesday through Thursday... Showers and isolated
thunderstorms with restrictions through Wednesday then scattered
showers Thursday with possible restrictions.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR; low chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

Sunday...Shower and thunderstorm chances look to increase later
in the day with the next approaching system.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for PAZ039-040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NYZ045-046-056-057-
     062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KL/BTL
AVIATION...DK

                
            
                                
    
        
    
    
        
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