Area Forecast Discussion (NWS BGM)

FXUS61 KBGM 262321
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
721 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry weather continues for this week and weekend, with
a few cold fronts crossing the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

No significant weather impacts are expected over the next week
plus. The pattern will continue to be mainly dry with high
pressure dominating for the bulk of the forecast period. Only
exceptions will be this afternoon and evening and again on
Thursday, as dry cold fronts push through the region. These
fronts will bring an increase in wind gusts, however they will
also bring an increase in relative humidity, which alleviates
some of our fire weather concerns. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph
will be possible starting this afternoon as the pressure
gradient over the region tightens some. Minimum RH will range
in the upper 40s to low 50s percent in the mid afternoon, before
increasing in the late afternoon and evening as the stronger
wind gusts arrive. Due to the increase in RH, we are not
expecting to issue any fire related special weather statements,
but will continue to monitor fire weather conditions closely.

For Tuesday, the winds will lighten up as high pressure moves
back overhead. It will again be dry, with minimum relative
humidity dipping into the 30s percent range, but cooler
temperatures and the light winds should alleviate any fire
weather concerns.

The cold front passing Thursday into Friday will have a small
chance to produce some light showers or sprinkles across I90
corridor. However, most of the region will remain dry and if any
rain does occur across the north, it will be very light.

High pressure will then return for this weekend. The next
possible chance for rain will come either the end of the weekend
or the beginning of next week. Models are in disagreement of the
overall pattern next week, so there is no reason to stray from
NBM for the long term forecast. At this time, the NBM is
bringing low chances for rain starting Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MVFR cigs have largely lifted as the dry air ahead of the front
mixes in as it moves south. ITH is really the only terminal that
has good chances of MVFR cigs still, but those will lift after
4Z as the front moves away and dry air moves in from the north.
ELM looks to remain on the windier side overnight so that should
prevent fog but the subtle increase in moisture behind the front
may be enough for some IFR vis if winds calm for a few hours
with clouds clearing.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at
KELM possible each morning. Low chance for showers at KSYR and
KRME Thursday night with a cold front moving through.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPK/SJW
AVIATION...AJG/JTC

                
            
                                
    
        
    
    
        
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