Area Forecast Discussion (NWS BGM)

FXUS61 KBGM 131823
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
223 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-- Changed Discussion --Some changes to the timing and coverage of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --1) Showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon and
night. The main threat is gusty to locally damaging winds.

2) A welcome break Monday and Tuesday with more showers in the
forecast by Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold frontal boundary will move into the region Sunday
afternoon and night. Ahead of the front, enough lift and
moisture looks present for the development of showers and
thunderstorms. To complicate things there is also a trough
modeled over the Mid-Atlantic. This also has the potential to
serve a focal point for the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Given multiple areas of activity, it may be
challenge to get upward of 1,000 J/KG CAPE which would be enough
for more of a widespread severe event. Steep low level rates
should offset the lack of CAPE some leading to the potential for
gusty to locally damaging winds. The overall shear profile
looks more favorable compared to Friday. This would result in
more distinct organization of thunderstorms into multi-cluster
segments. Timing looks to be from mid- afternoon over the Finger
Lakes then moving southeastward into NEPA during the evening
hours.

High temperatures should nudge into the 80`s again before any
thunderstorms Sunday after a slightly muggier start around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A much cooler shot of air comes in behind the front on Monday
and Tuesday with 70`s for highs and 50`s for lows. This will be
followed by a broad trough of low pressure forming over the
Eastern United States later on in the week. Modeling is
projecting a very strong surface low by June standards to track
through the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. This would bring
another round or two of showers. More uncertainity is present if
any instability will be present for thunderstorms. A few
showers may linger past Thursday with a West- Northwest flow
pattern.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through 18Z Sunday, before our next
potential round of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday
afternoon-evening. Despite a clear sky this evening, valley fog
is not anticipated at KELM due to dryness of the air, as well as
an increasing wind just off the surface. In fact, flow just
above the surface will be enough for marginal low level wind
shear conditions to be met at KRME for few hours up to dawn;
confidence and magnitude are generally too low for the other
terminals. After surface winds go light across the terminals
tonight, they will pick up from the south-southwest by midday
Sunday with occasional gusts into the teens knots range.

Outlook:

Sunday mid afternoon through Sunday night...Showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions likely Sunday
afternoon-evening, followed by lingering low clouds/fog
overnight.

Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms especially each afternoon as multiple
disturbances pass through; associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...MDP

                
            
                                
    
        
    
    
        
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