Area Forecast Discussion (NWS BGM)

FXUS61 KBGM 120002
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
802 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts for Northeast PA to the Catskills was once
again increased for Saturday night, but also reduced for Sunday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After a dry period of weather, the next round of rain
showers and some thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into
Sunday.

2) After a return to dry and cooler weather Monday and Tuesday,
warmer weather and scattered showers and thunderstorms returns
by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will be directly overhead tonight. With clear
skies and light winds, good radiational cooling conditions will
be present. This will result in cool temperatures (lows in the
lower 40s to near 50; upper 30s in northern Oneida County), and
some valley fog.

The high pressure system will depart the region on Saturday as a
warm front approaches the area. This will result in increasing
clouds, and eventually rain showers moving into the area. The
majority of the area will likely be rain-free during the daytime
on Saturday, but a few showers may sneak in west of I-81 during
the afternoon.

The most concentrated period of rain showers and some embedded
thunderstorms will be Saturday night/early Sunday morning. PWATs
will be around 1.7 inches and coupled with a decent LLJ, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. The greatest threat for this
will be across Northeast PA-Catskills. While widespread flash
flooding is not anticipated, cannot rule out some localized
flooding issues late Saturday night.

There will likely be a bit of a lull in the rainfall Sunday
morning, before a cold front will bring another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Depending
on how much clearing occurs, some of these thunderstorms may
become strong to potentially severe.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the passage of the cold front, cooler air will move
into the region, which will bring highs in the 60s to lower 70s
both Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will keep conditions dry
during this period. Another system may bring some scattered
showers and potentially some thunderstorms by the middle of
next week, along with warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period for
all terminals. Some high clouds are approaching from the
southwest and with the drier air in place today, this may keep
ELM from seeing low cloud and fog formation. However, with the
good radiational cooling setup with high pressure overhead and
light winds, low temperatures there tonight will be very close
to or reach the crossover temperature for fog formation. For
now, visibility in the forecast has been trended higher, but
still kept a TEMPO in for IFR/LIFR restrictions prior to
daybreak given some uncertainty.

Clouds increase tomorrow and winds become southerly as a warm
front approaches. Isolated to scattered showers are possible,
mainly around ELM prior to the end of the TAF, but can`t be
ruled out around ITH and AVP. Rainfall spreads farther north and
east after 00Z Sunday with associated restrictions.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday...Restriction possible as a frontal
system moves through bringing rain showers to the region.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...DK

                
            
                                
    
        
    
    
        
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