000
FXUS61 KBGM 050545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1245 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. DRY AND MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 PM UPDATE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY TO
EVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THIS HAS ALREADY BROKEN THE WEAK LAKE-TO-LAKE
CONNECTION THAT WE HAD EARLIER IN NEW YORK...AND CLOUDS HAVE
BECOME CELLULAR AND ARE SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
AIR. IN PENNSYLVANIA...SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...IS BEGINNING TO THIN AND SHIFT FARTHER SOUTHWARD.

SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TWIN TIERS...BUT
OVERALL LOOKING AT QUICK DIURNAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY REALIZING NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES IF NOT EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
IN FEW SPOTS...UNLIKE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS DURING WHICH WE HAVE
BEEN MOSTLY TRAPPED UNDER STRATOCUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES...A PAIR OF WEAK
WAVES SUNDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN BETWEEN.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO HAVING THE UPPER WAVE PASS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...YET AT THE SURFACE THINGS ARE MORE COMPLICATED.
SAGGING FRONT IS DELAYED BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE...AND ACTUALLY
STALLS OUT PARTIALLY THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUD DECK
WILL SPREAD OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...BUT SHALLOW
FRONT /OR AT LEAST THE CLOUD DECK/ APPEARS UNLIKELY TO REACH MUCH
BEYOND THE NY-PA BORDER...IF AT ALL. TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE WILL
PROBABLY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

MOISTURE MAY GET MARGINALLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND
THE FRONT...NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS...AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND BACKING WINDS...WILL END
THIS POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AT A DRY COLUMN AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 540 DM ON MONDAY. SUNSHINE AND RESULTING MIXING WILL YIELD
WIDE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTS
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON YET ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE PASSING TUESDAY MORNING. AS WITH RECENTLY...I AM
EXPECTING ABOVE GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISE LEVELING OFF
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE FRONT...I KEPT SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE. IF
ANYTHING DOES MATERIALIZE IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT. 850MB MOISTURE
DOES MANAGE TO GET TO AROUND MINUS-10 CELSIUS BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OF A FEW POSTFRONTAL FLURRIES
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 330 PM SAT... OVERALL...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHG TO THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SEEN WITH THE MODELS AGAIN TODAY.
EC/GFS/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A VORTEX WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE NEAR HUDSON`S BAY...WITH UPPER-LVL RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL KEEP FAST MOVG NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES COMING
ACRS NY/PA ABT EVERY 24-36 HRS...IT WILL ALSO KEEP THE GOMEX CUT
OFF. THIS FACTOR...IN COMBINATION WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF SIG HI-
LAT BLOCKING OVER GREENLAND/NWRN ATLANTIC...SHOULD KEEP ANY MAJOR
STORMS/HVY PCPN EVENTS FROM IMPACTING OUR FA THIS PD. ALSO...GIVEN
THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN N OF THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER...TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABV SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEB.

DAILY WX-WISE...A FAST MOVG UPPER-LVL TROUGH/SFC WAVE ARE EXPECTED
TO UNDERCUT THE ABV MENTIONED ERN CANADIAN VORTEX AND TRACK
THROUGH THE MID-ATL RGN WED...OR PERHAPS EARLY THU. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING A SHOT OF LGT SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
PCPN IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. BOTTOM LN THOUGH...THIS SYSTEM SHOULDN`T
HAVE TIME TO PICK UP MUCH MOIST...SO AGN ANY SNOW LOOKS LIGHT.

OTHERWISE (FROM LATER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND)...QUICK MOVG IMPULSES
IN THE NRN STREAM WILL REINFORCE POLAR ORIGIN AIR MASSES (HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S).
OVERALL...THESE AIR MASSES LOOK INSUFFICIENTLY COLD/MOIST TO
GENERATE MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE...SO JUST OCNL FLRYS/-SHSN WILL
BE CALLED FOR IN THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1 AM SUN... PATCHY MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
SOME OF THE NY TAF SITES TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NNE THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO NW THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KTS OR
LESS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT-TUE NGT...PSBL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE-EFFECT SHSN.

WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN LGT SNOW.

THU...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN LGT SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MSE

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion